CYCLONE Sandra is expected to be declared tomorrow when a big low 770km northeast of Townsville increases in intensity.
It will be the second Queensland cyclone of the season and Weather Bureau forecasters expect it to move east to southeast tomorrow and Saturday but stay well offshore.
It is not expected to affect the coast over the next three days.
World meteorological computer models cannot agree whether New Caledonia, Fiji or Australia will eventually feel its brunt.
It is being steered by two major weather systems and it remains unclear which will become the dominant force.
Weather Bureau forecaster Pradeep Singh said the low was travelling at 35km/hr and the further it moved away from Queensland, the better.
Mr Singh said Coral Sea cyclones had a reputation for erratic patterns."Some behave," he said. "Yasi did. It had a reasonably consistent track but some you see have really erratic paths.
"They do all sorts of things. They go north, go south, do loops and this one might live up to the reputation."
Mr Singh said this event also showed the difficulties in using computer modelling to predict cyclones, with a variety of opinions coming out of calculations.
"Basically, it shows it's just too early to say," he said. "As well, there's a couple of other high level systems that also will have an impact on its direction."
CLOSE TO THE WIND: Kite surfers enjoy windy conditions at Bulcock Beach, Caloundra. Picture: Glenn Barnes
Meantime, the high is producing gale force winds and a big swell, with waves to 7m recorded by an Environment Department buoy off North Stradbroke Island.
Conditions are expected to cause more problems on already eroded beaches and swells of more than 5m were also recorded off Mackay.
Mr Singh said although showers would remain along the coastal strip, the low would draw moisture away from Australia for the next few days, disappointing graziers who were desperate for rain in many western areas.
The bureau issued a high fire danger warning for the Channel Country.
Wivenhoe Dam is at 88 per cent and Somerset is at 100.2 per cent.
Meantime, the body of a Leyburn resident, 64, who went missing in Darling Downs floods last week was found in the Condamine River south of Toowoomba.
Police have still not found the man's four-wheel drive or his dog.
Overnight, it was reported that Cyclone Sandra was expected to develop from a monsoon low and could hit severe strength, Category 3, or higher.
Yesterday, predictions put the developing low as turning into a tropical cyclone by late Thursday or early Friday.
But that prediction has now been revised, with the low possibly intensifying to a cyclone as early as Thursday morning.
The system is currently sitting 500km east-northeast of Townsville and is moving steadily eastwards.
The Bureau of Meteorology is reporting the system is producing a large wind field which will bring big swells to Queensland beaches within the next few days.
Weather Bureau forecaster David Grant said heavy rain and storms would occur along the east coast today but then move offshore.
"It's a weird thing, but as the cyclone develops it will have the effect of drawing moisture offshore with it," he said.
"This should leave big seas the immediate major east coast impact.
"Our models are showing the system will remain offshore at least into the weekend," he said. "After that we should know if it's going to develop a westward track."
Isolated showers will remain along the coastal strip with showers and storms in the west.
Rain continued in central and north Queensland yesterday, with falls up to 100mm in a strip between Cairns and Mackay. A weather station at Mt Jukes, near Mackay, has recorded 750mm of rain in the week to 9am yesterday.
It comes as a report released by the Climate Commission says extreme east coast rainfall was influenced by climate change.
Report author Will Steffen said climate change was increasing the risk of extreme weather but determining the nature of that influence on rainfall was more complex than for temperature-related events.
"Australia has always been a land of extremes. However, climate change is now making many types of extreme weather worse, particularly heat waves and bushfires," Professor Steffen said.
"We remain very concerned that the risk of extreme weather events increases as we continue to emit more and more greenhouse gases."
Queensland Floods Appeal distribution committee chairman Terry Mackenroth said residents whose homes were inundated in the wake of Cyclone Oswald needed to lodge applications for emergency funding by March 18.
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